Research Output
Choice of model and re鈥恘esting probability function influences behaviour of avian seasonal productivity models and their demographic predictions
  Measuring seasonal productivity is difficult in multi鈥恇rooded species without labour鈥恑ntensive ringing studies. Individual鈥恇ased (IB) models have been used to estimate seasonal productivity with no direct knowledge of number of nesting attempts, but they are often based on simplified re鈥恘esting probability (蠁 R ) step鈥恌unctions instead of observed or more biologically plausible ones. We present a new, open鈥恠ource IB seasonal productivity model parameterized from studies of Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella. We examined how the 蠁 R function shape (empirical versus simplified) influenced (1) model performance, (2) re鈥恘esting compensation and (3) population鈥恖evel predictions of a simulated management intervention. Population鈥恖evel predictions were made only for Yellowhammer as we had more detailed demographic data, such as survival rates, available. Pattern鈥恛riented modelling revealed that IB models produced realistic within鈥恜opulation distributions of breeding parameters, and those specified with an observed or empirically derived 蠁 R function generally outperformed those specified with simpler step functions. Strength of re鈥恘esting compensation differed depending on the 蠁 R function used. For Yellowhammers, type of 蠁 R function in IB models marginally influenced population鈥恖evel predictions of a simulated management intervention (potential population growth rate increased between 23% and 29% relative to no management intervention). In contrast, a simple deterministic productivity model, which did not simulate re鈥恘esting compensation, predicted a 41% increase in potential population growth. At a population level, choice of 蠁 R function may have less influence on IB model predictions, but choice of model itself (IB versus deterministic) may have substantial impact. We discuss how more biologically plausible 蠁 R functions might either be observed directly, derived from nest data, or estimated from proxy information such as moult or brood patch changes.

  • Type:

    Article

  • Date:

    23 August 2023

  • Publication Status:

    Published

  • Publisher

    Wiley

  • DOI:

  • ISSN:

    0019-1019

  • Funders:

    Edinburgh Napier Funded

Citation

麻豆社区

White, P. J. C., Stoate, C., Aebisher, N. J., Szczur, J., Ferrer, L., & Norris, K. (2024). Choice of model and re鈥恘esting probability function influences behaviour of avian seasonal productivity models and their demographic predictions. Ibis, 166(2), 455-471. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13267

Authors

Keywords

agent-based modelling, Black Redstart, individual-based modelling, multi-brooded passerine, pattern-oriented modelling, repeat clutch, simulation, Yellowhammer

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