ࡱ> F Tbjbj ! % (  yyy8D Ɵ^K"mmm222EGGGGGG$&kyB"2BBk))mm$N$N$NB)8mymE$NBE$N$NBіa mӣZH$f10Ɵޤ~L<ޤ ޤy (2p +$N4;222kkMj222ƟBBBBޤ222222222 :  Older Worker Participation Rates and the Economy in Scotland Ronald W. McQuaid Employment Research Institute Napier University Craiglockhart Campus Edinburgh EH14 1DJ Scotland, UK r.mcquaid@napier.ac.uk Revised Version Paper for Population Ageing and Economic Productivity, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) 2-4 December 2004 Draft not for quotation without authors permission Abstract The ageing of societies in the European Union (EU), and much of the developed world, is one of the main challenges facing the governments. This reduction is due both to relatively more people ceasing work as they reach retirement age, but also due to age discrimination and people leaving the workforce in the years before retirement. This paper seeks to consider the effects of demographic change on Scotlands labour force, and particularly the geographic effects of activity rates for older workers. It then considers some of the policy options available. 1. Introduction The ageing of societies in the European Union (EU) and much of the developed world is one of the main challenges facing the governments CEC (1999). This will affect pensions, health, the quantity and composition of labour markets etc. Indeed, the reverse demographic dividend of having a younger population with more working age per non-working age population may help to partly account, along with other factors, for economic growth, such as Irelands Celtic Tiger (Bloom & Canning, 2003). It is difficult to determine the effect of change age compositions of the labour force upon aggregate productivity (Disney, 1996) although they may potentially reduce national productivity as: traditionally older workers have often been considered less productive or entrepreneurial than younger workers; there will be a shift in expenditure from more to less productive sectors; and the relative size of the employed workforce is expected to significantly reduce under current trends. On the other hand, older workers may have greater life and work experience, less absenteeism and require less supervision (Johnson, 2003, Jackson, 1998, pp 95-100). Some loss of productivity among older workers may be due to skills obsolescence, rather than age (Skirbekk, 2004). However, there is less evidence on more specialist skills needed in modern businesses using, for example, high levels of new technologies. Also if labour markets grow more slowly or cease to grow there may be incentives to innovate and use existing resources more efficiently, while higher wages due to ageing should lead to greater investment in human capital, and hence productivity growth. The reduction in workforce is due both to relatively more people ceasing work as they reach retirement age, but also due to age discrimination and people leaving the workforce in the years before retirement (due partly to the strong incentives of early retirement schemes, OECD, 19981, b). These trends suggest that, in the most affected countries, both increases in the working population and/or increases in the relative productivity of older workers is important. A rapid and long-term decline in labour forces in the EU is predicted to start around 2010 and to continue until 2050 (Funk, 2003, 2004a). Productivity improvements and reducing the decline of the labour force may alleviate some of the effects. Proposed policy options concerning size of the labour force have included: increased birth rates (but these are difficult to achieve); increased in-migration (but this would need to be at a very large scale in the case of many countries, see Wright (2003), and within the EU almost all countries will be seeking to attract immigrants from each other as well as from beyond the EU); and/or increased participation rates especially in terms of people working to an older age (e.g. increasing the retirement age or tapering the age when people stop work, or improving labour market flexibility through work-life-balance policies). However, these policies have been inhibited by the current high unemployment rates in much of the EU and the actual short- to medium-term increase in labour forces (due to the remnants of post 1945 the baby boomers) in the next half-decade or so, limiting immediate pressure on many EU labour markets. This paper seeks to consider the effects of demographic change on Scotlands labour force, and particularly the geographic effects of activity rates for older workers. It then considers some of the policy options available. The focus is on Scotland, as it has a particularly rapidly ageing demographic structure. Section 2 considers the demographic context of Scotland. Section 3 examines some of the key characteristics of the older worker in the labour market and Section 4 sets out some currently proposed policy options. Section 5 presents brief conclusions. 2. Background, the demographic context of Scotland In a number of countries the TFR is now below replacement level, such as Italy, Spain and Germany. In 2001 the TRF for a woman in Scotland was 1.49, (1.6 for UK, higher due partly to higher levels of ethnic minority and immigrants who traditionally have higher rates of fertility) compared to 3.09 at the peak of the baby boom in 1964 (GRO, 2001). The population decline in Scotland can mainly be explained by the low fertility rates. Scotland has the lowest birth rate in the UK, but not as low as in Italy, Spain, Germany, Austria and Greece, so it is part of a European wide phenomenon. Projections are for a rapid population fall in the future (Figure 1), although note that the figure compares other countries rather than nations within a country. Overall, the Scottish population has been relatively stable in the last 100 years, reaching a peak in 1974 of 5.24 million and since then gradually declining (GROS 2001). GROS (2004) The total population is projected to fall from 5.06 million to below 4.9 million in 2028; the number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 82 per cent of its 2003 level by the year 2028; the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 8.5 per cent from 3.16 million in 2003 to 2.89 million in 2028; the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise by more than 27 per cent to over 1.2 million in 2028; the mean age of the population is projected to rise from just under 40 at the present time to just over 45 by 2028 (GROS, 2004). The dependency ratio is projected to remain around 60 per 100 from 2003 to 2021. After 2021, and the completion of the change to the state pension age, the dependency ratio will rise to 69 per 100 working age population in 2028, and eventually reach 77 in 2043. Figure 1. Projected Percentage Population Change In Various Developed 2001-2030  EMBED Excel.Chart.8 \s  Source: Raeside and Khan (2003) p. 3. Labour force participation rates among older workers Setting these Scottish figures in context, currently the employment to population ratios (1970-2002) among the over 50 cohort are low especially in Germany and some parts of Great Britain such as Scotland (see Figure 2), although these employment ratios are growing. This plays a significant part in the general reduction of the current and future available labour force. Figure 2. Employment-to-population-ratio 55-64 years 1970-2002 (%). Source: OECD: Labour Market Statistics In the UK Campbell (1999) found that around two-fifths of men aged between 55 and 65 were without paid work in 1997, compared to one-fifth in 1979. Until the mid-1970s, the participation rate in the UK for men aged 55 and over was one of the highest among OECD members (OECD, 1995). Since this period there has been a virtually uninterrupted fall in the participation rate for the 55-59 age group, one of the sharpest declines of OECD countries (Funk, 2004b). One half of men and one third of women now retire before state pension age (Disney et al., 1997). In addition, each cohort of men appears less likely to remain in employment at older ages (Campbell, 1999) so these trends cannot simply be explained as a consequence of the downturn in the economy during the 1980s and 1990s but, rather, are part of an ongoing process. In Germany a similar sharp decline in labour force participation is observed. For men, it starts at the age of 55, when the participation has dropped from 85.7 in 1975 to 78.8 in 2000. This trend is even more pronounced in the 60-64 age group with participation rates declining from 58.3 to 31.4 during the last 25 years (Frerichs and Taylor, 2004). In Scotland the activity rates falls from 91% for males aged 35-49 years to 69% for those between 50 and State Pensionable Age (Table 1). Scotland is particularly affected by the decline in activity rates for older workers (Brown, 2001; Turok and Edge, 1999). Economic activity rates among older workers are significantly lower than for other age groups and economic activity rates for the 50 plus are significantly higher in England than in Scotland. Table 1. Economic Activity Rates (%) Scotland by age and gender, Spring 2000 MalesFemalesTotalAll working age82.972.577.916-1758.457.057.718-2482.069.375.725-3491.777.184.535-4990.679.685.050-59/6469.359.865.2Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey. Although levels of inactivity are high in Scotland, relative to the UK as a whole, there are a number of interesting comparisons with other UK regions. For those age 50-State Pensionable Age (SPA), at the country level, rates of economic inactivity for Scotland are not as high as in Wales but higher than the UK and English rates. When compared to English regions, inactivity rates for those aged 50-retirement age in Scotland are lower than some English regions especially the North East. Of course some Scottish local authorities have higher rates. The rural areas generally have high activity rates (e.g. Aberdeenshire, 80.7%, Shetland Islands 87.0%) while the older industrial areas had lower rates. For example rates of inactivity in Glasgow for those age 50-SPA was 53.7%, 52.4% in North Lanarkshire and 63.1% in South Lanarkshire (LFS, 2004). This may be due to multi-job, part-time work and out-migration of those without work in rural areas. In former heavy industrial areas there may be a cohort effect of ill health due to industrial disease and a discouraged worker effect, where people leave the labour market due to lack of perceived opportunities. Table 2. Economic Activity Rates By Scottish Council Area Economic Activity Rate: Working Age to State Pension AgeShetland Islands87.0Aberdeenshire 80.7Eilean Siar77.8Aberdeen City 77.2Scottish Borders 77.1Orkney Islands77.1East Renfrewshire 75.4Perthshire & Kinross 74.6Highland 73.4Edinburgh, City of 73.1Moray 72.8East Dunbartonshire 72.6Angus 70.5Argyll & Bute 69.4West Lothian 67.3Midlothian 67.2Dumfries & Galloway 66.8Clackmannanshire66.7Fife 66.5Renfrewshire 64.9Dundee City 64.7East Lothian64.2Stirling63.5South Ayrshire 63.2South Lanarkshire 63.1Falkirk 61.2Inverclyde60.7East Ayrshire 59.3West Dunbartonshire 59.0North Ayrshire 57.4Glasgow City 53.7North Lanarkshire 52.4Scotland66.5Source: Labour Force Survey 2004 This points to the need to explore in greater detail why older workers, particularly men, are continuing to withdraw from the labour force in such great numbers. Campbell found that increasingly fewer older people return to work after leaving the labour market and older people without a job are likely to become less attached to the labour market moving from unemployment to long-term sickness or retirement (see also: Erdem and Glyn, 2001). So the decrease in activity of older workers has not been matched by an increase in unemployment (Schmitt and Wadsworth, 1994; Beatty and Fothergill, 2002), to an extent hiding the levels of withdrawal from the labour market. Indeed, unemployment among older workers is twice as high in Scotland as in England. Unemployment in this age group is most marked across western and rural areas, but it is particularly acute in parts of the Highlands and Islands. Due to hidden unemployment within this age group, the true level of joblessness among older workers is probably underestimated due to moves onto the benefits system (see Beatty and Fothergill, 2002). A very different picture is observed with older women (Collis et al., 2000). During the last 25 years there has been a significant increase in their involvement in the labour market at all ages. In the UK the labour force participation rate for women with dependent children has risen from 61% in 1988 to 67% in 1998, and there has been an increase in the number of women remaining childless. In addition, many women will now have career histories of more than 30 years. Much of the increased participation of women in the labour market can be accounted to the increase in part-time work (EOC, 2001). Although female participation is increasing, a number of factors can be identified which disadvantage older women in the labour market, including: higher incidences of part-time working, with lower hourly earnings, progression, terms and conditions; broken career patterns due to more caring responsibilities; lower life-time earnings (Warren et al., 2001); concentration in low paid sectors of the economy; a high proportion of women receiving substantially lower occupational pensions that males. In Scotland the labour market has been changing dramatically for at least the past two decades and ageing in structure at a rapid rate (see, for instance: Ermisch, 1995; Brown, 2001; Green, 2001). The loss of older workers in traditional trades and sectors, their skills, knowledge and experience, may become critical, therefore, impinging on the productivity, efficiency and effectiveness of the Scottish labour market and economy. The increase in older and retired workers has been accompanied by a sharp reduction in the number of school leavers and a rapid expansion of Higher Education. This implies a tightening of the labour market for those who would traditionally have proceeded onto apprenticeship training or entry-level positions, with an overall increase in the numbers and proportions of the workforce with degrees or equivalent. 3. Characteristics of older workers in the Labour market This section of the paper examines some of the key characteristics of the older worker in the labour market, again the particular focus is on Scotland (and the UK) (based on Hollywood et al., 2003). It examines: the employment patterns of older workers; the decline in activity among older workers; the training and skills of older workers; and those working beyond State Pensionable Age. Employment patterns of older workers The forms of employment taken up by older workers have diversified since the 1980s with an increase in non-standard forms of employment such as part-time work and self-employment. Such increases in flexible working may, ceteris paribus, improve productivity. In terms of the occupational groups of older workers some broad trends can be identified. For example, older workers are more likely to be employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing and other services (e.g. public administration, education and health) and be over-represented in declining industrial sectors (Kodz et al., 1999). As older workers retire or leave these sectors then , if they are replaced by more productive workers and/or capital, then productivity should rise (and visa versa if the new, younger workers are less efficient). Table 2 outlines the occupational groups for older workers by gender. It shows that older men are more likely to be employed as manager and senior officials (explained by their length of service) and in skilled trades and occupations, whereas women are more concentrated in administrative and personal service occupations. Table 3. Older Workers 50 - State Pension Age By Occupation (%) AllMenWomenManagers and senior officials15.620.09.2Professional occupations12.413.510.8Associate professional and technical11.011.410.3Administrative and technical13.74.527.4Skilled trades and occupations13.120.32.4Personal service occupations6.72.113.5Sales and customer service5.42.49.8Process plant and machine10.314.93.5Elementary occupations11.911.013.2Source: Labour Force Survey 2001 Some broad characteristics of older workers in the UK are identified as: There are 8.6 million people aged 50 to State Pension Age (SPA), 68% of whom are in employment, accounting for 19% of the total working population. Older workers (50-SPA) are more likely to work part-time (25%) compared to younger groups. Older workers are more likely to be self-employed (16%) compared to those 25 to 49 (11%). The average length of current employment is higher for older workers: 12.8 years compared to 7 years for those 25 to 49. Older people have fewer qualifications than their younger counterparts. ILO unemployment rates for older people are lower than for younger ones. ILO unemployment rates for older people are lower in England compared to Scotland: 3% compared to 5%. Older people are much more likely to be long-term unemployed and to be inactive. (Source: Labour Force Survey, Autumn 2001 (Department of Work and Pensions.) Although these broad statistics are helpful in describing older workers they are clearly not a homogenous group. However, some older workers face particular disadvantages in the labour market, such as the unskilled and particular groups of women. In addition, there are common issues that face large numbers of older workers such as age discrimination, pension rights and transitions to retirement. Who, then, makes up this group of inactive older workers? One hypothesis is that there are two types of inactive older men. One group consists of voluntarily retired professional workers with occupational pension schemes which enable them to have a sufficient income before state pension age; a second group includes skilled or semi-skilled workers who have been made redundant and who are now unable to work due to long-term sickness (Barham, 2002). Rises in inactivity have also been particularly high among those with low levels of qualifications. Reasons given for a withdrawal from the labour market for these two groups are presented as being very different. Professional workers are seen as being able to make a personal choice as they have the financial assets with which to take up retirement. However, this does not take account of the fact many managers were made redundant during the 1980s and 1990s. For the second group, withdrawal is forced by labour market circumstances, particularly for those leaving traditional industries due to redundancy and lack of what are considered to be alternative employment opportunities. A number of reasons have been put forward for the increasing numbers of inactive older workers. In particular weight has been given to the role of social security payments in the withdrawal from the labour market, with a link between the age at which benefits are available and departure from the labour market being made (Blundell and Johnson, 1999). One of the main arguments in the older workers literature is that the large numbers of inactive workers is masking high levels of unemployment. Beatty and Fothergill (1999, 2002) argue that the financial incentives in the benefits system and the operation of the employment services divert large numbers of jobless men and women in poor health away from unemployment benefits and onto sickness related benefits and that this process is especially marked in older industrial areas where jobs are hard to find and where the incidence of occupational ill health is often greatest. They argue that this is not fraudulent behaviour, but that it is hidden unemployment since in a fully employed economy they could have reasonably expected to be in work. From 1981 to 1999 the numbers of people claiming Incapacity Benefit (ICB) has risen from 550,000 to just over 2,000,000 (Beatty and Fothergill, 2002). About two-thirds of ICB claimants are men, although women are increasingly claiming support. It is paid to people who are assessed as being incapable of working and is normally available after 28 weeks of illness or injury. ICB is more generous than Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), especially for those who have been on this benefit since the mid-1990s when the regulations changed, and it is not currently means tested. The benefits system imposes fewer work activity requirements on sick and disabled claimants, although this may change in the future if the government instigates measures for more active support for encouraging those on ICB to get back into work (Pathways to Work, DWP, 2002). ICB is assessed initially through a medical certificate from the claimants own GP, the claim form and a probing examination by a Benefits Agency appointed doctor; and after 6 months most claimants are required to pass through the all work test to assess their continuing inability to take on any work. Redundancy payments also have a role to play in the withdrawal of older workers. Redundancy has been used by many companies and industries as a method of down-sizing and cutting their workforces, with redundancy being overwhelmingly targeted at older workers. Redundancy payments can represent an appreciable capital sum for older workers when withdrawing early from the labour market, especially when combined with an occupational pension. There may then be blurring of the distinction between redundancy and early retirement. However, it is mainly large companies who choose early retirement as an option for their surplus older workers. It has also been the case in large industries such as steel and coal mining (Turner, 1996). The shrinking employment share of those age over 50 has taken place in both growing and declining industries (Campbell, 1999). However, service sector employers generally exhibit a more positive orientation to older workers, which may increase the range of employment opportunities for this group (Taylor and Walker, 1994). Age may be an advantage for certain types of jobs (e.g. where personal experience is useful when giving advice to customers). Inactivity is also an issue in other countries across the OECD and beyond (Pathways to Work, DWP, 2002). According to official statistics from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, for instance, barely more than 2% of the 32.8 million persons aged 55 and older who were not in the labour force in 2001 reported that they wanted a job. The US experience shows some recent slow down in the early exit of workers from the labour market (Deets et al., 2002). However, much of this increase in participation is largely explained by the increase in employment among older women. Other factors that may explain the increase in participation include the removal of mandatory retirement ages and the gradual age rise in the eligibility for full social security benefits, while financial considerations may also be significant, especially due to rising healthcare costs in the US. The training and skills of older workers The level of training, qualifications and skills among older workers is one characteristic that affects their participation, contribution and retention in the labour market. Older workers are less likely than their younger counterparts to be involved in training and are likely to be less well qualified (DfEE, 2001). For example, 26% of those aged 50 to SPA have no formal qualifications compared to 13% of those aged 25 to 49 (LFS, autumn 2001). Labour Force Survey data for spring 1997 shows that the proportion of older employees receiving employer funded training was lower than that of other age groups, and older workers are much less likely to participate in employer provided training than younger workers (Taylor and Urwin, 2001). In addition, The National Adult Learning Survey 1997 found that more of the older people expressed a lack of interest in learning. One implication is that as the current older workers retire, then the average level of training and qualifications will rise, due (partly) to this cohort effect. Assuming that higher productivity is due to training and qualifications (and they compensate for any greater experience effect), then the average productivity should rise. Like employment initiatives, training initiatives have tended to focus mainly on younger age groups (Kodz et al., 1999). Yet encouraging participation in training is one way to enhance the position of older people in the labour market (Collis et al., 2000). Older people who have no qualifications are particularly at risk of unemployment at times of recession or labour market restructuring. Structural changes in the labour market mean that the work experience of older workers is often less valued, suggesting the need for continued training throughout their working life. One explanation for the lack of training among older workers may be that there is a limited potential payback from the perspective of both the employee and employers in any investment in training. Employers may feel that it is not worth training older workers as they only have a limited remaining working life. However, there is the similar risk with training younger workers who may move to another company or organisation. Indeed, it has been shown that the retention rates for older workers are far better than those for younger workers. Older workers themselves may not see the benefit of training for themselves when they may be retiring in a few years. Recent government consultations (DTI, 2002, 2003) suggest that discrimination against older workers in employment and vocational training will be made illegal. There may also be a number of barriers to older people gaining training such as previously interrupted learning, lack of current opportunities, lack of local provision, cost of courses, accessibility and transport, confidence about ability, perceived lack of necessary qualifications, previously interrupted learning, lack of local provision and a lack of relevant and interesting courses (DWP research report, 102; Davey, 2002). Older women are also disadvantaged when it comes to qualifications and training. Over the population as a whole, men are better qualified than women particularly in the older age groups and a higher proportion of women than men aged between 45 and retirement age have no qualifications; 30% of women compared to 20% of men (EOC, 2001). Hill (2001) analysed the labour market effects of training for older female workers in the USA and found that labour market disadvantage of older women can be helped through training, especially on-the-job training. It was found that women who have higher human capital, train and remain in the labour force at older ages and sustain higher productivity and wages, highlighting the benefits for both workers and employers. However, the increased levels of qualifications among younger women in the under 25 age groups, who are out-performing their male counterparts, will have an impact on this pattern in the future. Older workers working past State Pension Age Most of the older worker literature focuses on the declining labour force participation of those aged 50+. However, a significant proportion of the labour force are now working past State Pensionable Age. The UK has higher rates of working among older men and women than most of continental Europe (Vlasblom and Nekkers, 2001). So it is important to understand why a number of people are continuing to work past SPA. Smeaton and McKay (2003) identified, from the analysis of secondary data, the reasons why individuals may be working past SPA. They found that overall employment rates for women at age 60 and men at age 65 stand at 8% and 9% respectively. However, it should be taken into account that these figures are drawn from the Family Resources Survey, which has a relatively small sample size. Figures available for Scotland indicate that 5% of men and 2% of women age 65+ class themselves as employed (MacDonald et al. 2001, Scottish Household Survey). Smeaton and McKay (2003) found that financial hardship was an important reason to continue working, with those groups of men and women with the highest probability of labour market participation being those with outstanding mortgages on their properties. Pension provision was most strongly associated with men continuing to work, with 67% of non-workers having an occupational pension compared with 53% of working men. Interestingly having any educational qualifications was associated with working past SPA while having none was associated with leaving work. This may indicate the importance of skills and qualifications in remaining in the labour market and/or the likelihood of too strenuous manual labour being carried out by unqualified people. Part-time working was high among post-SPA workers and they tended to be over-represented in areas such as distribution, hotels, restaurants and other services. Employment in professional jobs diminishes, with increasing proportions located in elementary occupations. They also found that one of the best predictors of being in work post-SPA was being in work in the period just before, highlighting the difficulty of re-joining the labour market. Those working past SPA described their financial conditions as better and also experienced better health than their non-working counterparts. Working past state pension age has become more prevalent in other countries such as USA and Japan and is likely to be a future trend in Scotland and the rest of the UK. 4. Employment policies on older workers The main reasons behind the low labour force participation rates among the over 50 age group are early retirement (Disney et al., 1997), age discrimination (Taylor and Walker, 1994), and the withdrawal of older male workers from the labour market (Campbell, 1999); and as the marginal productivity of labour (MPL) of older workers may be less than their wages, firms may seek to push them into early retirement (and so give the appearance to younger workers, who are paid less than their MPL, that the employer will honour their long term contract (MacKeller, 2003). A large body of literature exists on policies relating to older workers with a large number of studies looking into best practices available throughout the world (DWP, 2002; Naegele and Walker, 2002; Samorodov, 1999; Shipman, 2003, Morschhuser, 2003). However, less is known about how employers implement these policies and how this varies between different economic sectors and between different countries. Employers perspective of older workers All of the above mentioned policies are necessary and important steps in increasing the activity rates among older workers. The real effect of these policies becomes significant particularly through the direct application at the level of individual enterprise/employer and employees. Many employers seem to hold negative attitudes towards older workers and have for some time been shown to attribute to younger workers more positive work attitudes and superior job performance in comparison with their older counterparts (Taylor and Walker, 1994). There are a number of perceptions by employers about older workers, in particular that they are less adaptable to change, slower to acquire new skills and less able to cope with work pressures (Lyon and Pollard, 1997). There is also evidence that employers involved in customer-facing service activities can discriminate against older job seekers and others considered unsuitable, given the demands of aesthetic labour (i.e. looking or sounding right) (Warhurst et al., 2000), and hence older workers may be more productive in such jobs. However, older men, especially those without prior service sector experience, often do not wish to work in such sectors (Lindsay and McQuaid, 2004). The reluctance of employers to consider older unemployed people is a source of frustration for many job seekers in their 40s and 50s, who have described ageism among the most important barriers to work that they face with over half of long-term unemployed over 45 years old citing ageism as a barrier (McQuaid and Lindsay, 2002). There is, however, evidence that anti-discrimination policies in the workplace and awareness-raising campaigns can have a positive impact on prejudices against older workers (Hayward et al., 1997; Chiu et al., 2001). The age structure of some new service sector employers seems to reflect an exclusion of older workers. For example, about two-thirds of all call centre workers are under 35 years old, and half of these are under 25 (Taylor and Bain, 1999). However, the emotional labour required to carry out such customer facing work would in many ways be better suited to the older workers (Hallier, 2001). Many of the new greenfield employers are actively in favour of recruiting young workforces with the assumption that younger workers possess superior work attitudes to older workers, although Hallier (2001) argues that this stems from their perceived capacity to question new management decisions and practices and to employers fears in general about their ability to control their workforce. Prospects may be better for older workers in larger organisations where there are opportunities for part-time work and a more informed management structure. Indeed, Kodz et al. (1999) found that it is only very large employers who are currently taking account of demographic changes in the labour market. It has been found elsewhere that where ageism is addressed at the attitudinal and structural level in areas of recruitment and selection and internal access to training and development opportunities the prospects for older workers are improved (Arrowsmith and McGoldrick, 1997). Furthermore, Taylor and Walker (1998) found that where senior managers have attempted to, and have been successful in, influencing the operational culture of the organisation, older people have experienced increased opportunities with regard to employment and promotion. However, Arrowsmith and McGoldrick (1997) also suggest that overall prospects for older worker employment may be best in the SME sector. They argue that managers in these organisations are more confident of overall employment stability and may feel that they are well placed to benefit from the skills and abilities offered by displaced older workers. Smaller employers may also be better able to reach and accommodate older workers through a greater flexibility and informality in recruitment and selection methods. Currently the governments the UK is developing policies aimed at encouraging the employment of older workers. In the UK the example of such policies is employment through voluntary codes of practice (mentioned below). Therefore there is a great need for employers to look at how the national and local employment strategies affect their internal policies on older workers. Employers need to examine policies for attracting older workers but also they need to examine their policies toward the training, promotion and retention of their older staff. This will include policies on those with caring responsibilities, flexible working, flexible retirement and more general work life balance policies. Linked issues such as tapering working times (e.g. gradual decrease in hours worked for teachers etc.), gender differences etc. are beginning to be considered more carefully. The role of collective bargaining is important, especially in some EU countries. These cover wages, hours, benefits etc. and all can directly affect activity rates. (e. g. Frerichs and Taylor, 2004). It is also important to discuss the role of direct and indirect labour costs and the age profiles of labour costs (seniority wages and rights). These issues appear to account for much of the variations of employment rates of older workers in different countries according to, for example, the OECD. Frerichs and Taylor (2004) conclude (2.1) that there is a gap in research that can be filled only by other studies: labour market policy as such is just one important and may be even subsidiary policy field... It has to be embedded in an integrated policy approach together with pension and tax policy, policies for promoting health and education and policies to enhance the work-life balance. Some Policy Areas Work Life Balance. There is scope to relate work life balance polices to increase activity rates of those who wish to taper their retirement, both those aged 50 to State Pensionable Age and those beyond SPA. Recent research has shown that many older workers are keen to take up some form of flexible working before retirement (Lissenburg and Smeaton, 2003). These work-life balance policies may be particularly important for those with caring responsibilities (Mooney et al 2002, Phillips et al, 2002) or health difficulties (Hirsch, 2003). Age discrimination. The fact that older workers are more likely than younger workers to be made redundant and are less likely to be re-employed may partly be explained by institutional ageism. Taylor and Walker (1994) argue that discrimination is not merely due to individual prejudice but is also a social construct, institutionalised in the labour market and other social and economic systems (see also Loretto et al., 2000). The anti age discrimination legislation is currently under consideration across the EU and will be introduced by 2006 according to the EU employment directive. However, in isolation this legislation is no panacea. There is a need to consider the role of age discrimination in recruitment practices that indirectly affect the likelihood of older people getting a job (e.g. application forms asking for formal qualifications; insistence on full time working only etc.). Pension legislation. Early retirement had been identified as a major issue behind the low activity rates of older workers. Most of the EU countries are currently looking at reforming of the pension schemes in order to make them more sustainable. Public and private pension provision has been shown to have a strong role to play in retirement decisions (Naegele and Walker, 2002). Current plans include: encouragement of later retirement by providing more generous increases for those choosing to defer their state pension as well as removing the implicit taxation imposed on those continuing to work after the state pension age; to encourage greater uptake of flexible retirement (e.g. gradual retirement and part-time work among older workers in Germany, allowing people to draw on their occupational pension while remaining with the same employer in the UK); raising the state pension age and removing early retirement packages and reduce pensions payable on premature retirement (Pathways to Work, 2002). Incapacity benefits. Another set of policies linked to the ones mentioned above are the reform of incapacity benefits so they do not create a disincentive to work at an older age (Proage, 2003). As discussed earlier the financial incentives in the benefits system and the operation of the employment services divert large numbers of jobless men and women in poor health away from unemployment benefits and onto sickness related benefits. While Incapacity Benefits (ICB) is more generous than Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) and imposes fewer work activity requirements on sick and disabled claimants, this may change if the government instigates measures for more active support for encouraging those on ICB to get back into work (DWP, 2002). Other employment policies. Training has already been considered earlier and will not be repeated here. Within the European Employment Strategy the growing emphasis was placed on increasing the participation and employment of older workers as a means of raising employment overall. A major policy focus is currently on helping older workers back into work. The examples of such policies are New Deal 50+ in the UK (or the reduction of the eligibility requirements for Integration subsidies for older employees in Germany). Currently researchers are looking at the novel approaches to increase the labour force participation rate of the over 50 cohort by developing a system which captures/accredits peoples informal learning and avoids credentialism (Green et al., 2000; Robinson and Manacorda, 1997). It has long been recognised (e.g. through social audits in the 1980s; David Smith, 1992; etc.) that, many unemployed people have had experience of running community-based organisations, such as allotment groups or sports clubs etc, on a voluntary basis. This type of experience is not captured adequately by traditional recruitment practices, which merely seek to ascertain formal accredited qualifications. Given this, there may be opportunities to offer older people flexible or short-term employment trials with companies. This could allow companies the opportunity to test their potential and suitability and allow people the opportunity to demonstrate what they can do. Further research into the use of social networks among older workers may also add insights onto future policy development. Globalisation. The effects of globalisation are not clear, as it may be possible to replace lower productivity jobs by outsourcing abroad (e.g. China and India). However, high value added jobs may increasingly be outsourced and it is not clear how the relative balances will change in future decades. 5. Conclusions Scotland is experiencing a major change in its age structure. This will greatly affect the dependency ratios and the need for seeking to increase the activity rate of older workers. A number of specific potential policies were set out, although these each needs further investigation. There are major issues that also need to be considered, such as how to increase the productivity of older workers, how the changing income distributions (especially where pension and health costs are funded out of current source of income rather than real savings) will affect the development of the economy and provision of services for older people. There is a need to refine our understanding and modelling of the potential effects of these changes and policies to deal with them. In addition it would be useful to take fuller account of the changing activity rates such as working versus non-working population ratios. Acknowledgements This paper is based upon joint work with colleagues at the Employment Research Institute, Napier University, the Scotecon project and the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, Kln. Much of the literature review in this paper was developed as part of the Scotecon project and a joint research proposal. All errors remain the responsibility of the author. 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Retirement against the demographic trend: More old people living longer, working less and saving less, Demography, 34(1), 83-95. Wright, R. 2003. Scotlands Future Demographic Prospects. Paper presented at the Scotecon Conference on Demographics, Stirling, 6th June.  Ageing in this context means the move to a high support ratio in terms of those aged 60+ divided by those aged 15-59 years.  The decline in productivity, ceteris paribus, could be in terms of GDP per worker (if older workers are less productive, i.e. the composition of the workforce changes), and/or in terms of GDP per capita (if the working population falls in relation to the total population, i.e. the composition of the population changes). A further issue is whether we consider productivity per hour, or per person, if there is a higher propensity for part-time working among older workers. Hall and Jones (1999) argue that output per worker is more important than output per capita, although the latter may be more relevant for changes in total output of the economy. Of course, increasing productivity is generally desirable anyway, irrespective of the relative productivity of older workers (e.g. the Lisbon EU Accord).  The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children that a woman would have over her lifetime if she experienced the age specific fertility rate for that year for each age between 15 and 44.  The state pensionable age for women in the UK is moving from 60 to 65 years by 2200. The age for men remains at 60 years.  In Germany during the last 25 years the participation in the labour force of women of the 55-59 age group has increase from 38.4 to 58.15%. Though there was a decline in the 60-64 age group from 16.4 to 13.2% (Frerichs and Taylor, 2004).  ICB replaced invalidity benefit in April 1995.     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